OPEC en OPEC+

Algemene en actuele financiële onderwerpen
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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OPEC-landen zetten het mes nog verder in hun olieproductie

Grote olieproducerende landen hebben afgesproken dat ze vanaf begin volgend jaar minder olie oppompen. Hiermee willen ze ervoor zorgen dat de olieprijs niet te ver zakt.

De landen, verenigd in de OPEC, produceren vanaf 1 januari samen 1,7 miljoen vaten minder per dag. Onder meer Saoedi-Arabië, Irak en de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten schroeven hun productie terug. Ook Rusland, dat niet in de OPEC zit, gaat 500.000 vaten per dag minder oppompen.

Wel benadrukken de landen dat het om een vrijwillige verlaging gaat.

De aangekondigde beperkingen komen boven op de verlaging van de productie die eerder dit jaar al werd ingevoerd. Toen besloten Saoedi-Arabië en Rusland minder olie op de markt te brengen.

Sinds midden oktober dalen de olieprijzen weer wat, nadat ze eerder dit jaar flink waren gestegen. Om te voorkomen dat de prijzen nog verder zakken, willen de landen de productie verder beperken.

De beperkingen gelden in principe tot eind maart. Wat daarna gebeurt, is nog niet helemaal duidelijk.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6292161/opec ... uctie.html
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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Brazil to join Opec+ but won't cap oil output, Petrobras CEO says

RIO DE JANEIRO (Dec 1): Brazil is expected to join the Opec+ group of oil-producing countries in January but would not take part in the group's coordinated output caps, the chief executive of state-run oil firm Petrobras told Reuters.

The group's surprising announcement on Thursday that the South American nation would join it raised immediate questions on whether Brazil would take part in the production caps, as Opec+ nations agreed to voluntary cuts approaching two million barrels per day (bpd) for early next year.

"There is no quota," Jean Paul Prates said in an interview. "We would never be part of an organisation that imposes (production) quotas to Brazil, Petrobras is a publicly-traded company and we cannot have quotas."

Brazil's energy minister said on Thursday the country was eager to join Opec+ after a full technical analysis. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's office confirmed receiving the invite, but said he had not formally responded.

Brazil is the largest oil producer in South America, at 4.6 million barrels per day of oil and gas, of which 3.7 million bpd are crude.

Prates, who in October received Opec secretary general Haitham Al Ghais in Brazil, noted Opec+ was a group that includes countries with no voting rights and to which production caps are not imposed, which would be the case of Brazil.

He welcomed Brazil's move to join the group.

"Brazil would start participating in the meetings as some kind of observer member, which I think is really nice," Prates said, adding the move would be key to Opec and Brazil's energy transition efforts.

He expects Brazil to formally accept the invitation by June.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/692400
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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Lula says Brazil's participation in Opec+ is to stop oil producers using fossil fuels

SAO PAULO (Dec 3): Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Saturday that Brazil's participation in the Opec+ group of oil-producing countries is to convince nations to transition away from the use of fossil fuels.

Brazil indicated on Thursday that it was on the brink of joining Opec+, a group of 23 oil-producing countries.

"I think it's important for us to take part in Opec+, because we need to convince the countries that produce oil that they need to prepare for the end of fossil fuels," Lula said at COP28, the UN climate change conference in Dubai.

"Preparing means using the money they make to invest so that continents like Africa and Latin America can produce the renewable fuels they need, especially green hydrogen," he added.

After Lula's comment, Brazil's mines and energy minister, Alexandre Silveira, spoke on social media on the matter.

"We will lead oil-producing countries to accelerate the energy transition. Under the leadership of President Lula we want to use oil revenues to finance clean and renewable energy," he said.

Silveira signalled on Thursday that the country would accept an invitation to join Opec+.

Brazil is the largest oil producer in South America, at 4.6 million barrels per day of oil and gas, of which 3.7 million bpd are crude.

Brazil's potential participation in a group that could determine oil production cuts by its members would be controversial, given that the country is a market economy, with some companies, such as state-run oil company Petrobras, listed on the stock exchange.

But Brazil is not expected to cap oil output as part of Opec+, three sources told Reuters in a report published on Thursday.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/692454
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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Putin talks with Saudi crown prince dominated by oil and geopolitics

MOSCOW (Dec 7): Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed Opec+ cooperation on oil markets and the Middle East situation, the Kremlin said, during three hours of surprise talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday.

Mystery still surrounds the Kremlin chief's hastily arranged trip to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, on which he was escorted by four Russian fighter jets, and it was not immediately clear what issue was so important for Putin to make a rare overseas trip.

Putin's meeting with the Saudi crown prince, who is known as MbS, came after oil prices fell despite a pledge by Opec+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies led by Russia, to further cut output.

MbS was shown greeting Putin with smiles and an effusive handshake as he emerged from his car in the Saudi capital.

"We talked again about cooperation in Opec+," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

"The parties agree that our countries bear a great responsibility for interaction in order to maintain the international energy market at the proper level, in a stable, predictable state," Peskov said.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are the world's two largest oil exporters, together controlling a fifth of the oil pumped each day.

MbS praised joint coordination between the two countries "that helped remove tensions in Middle East," Saudi state news agency SPA said.

"We share many interests and many issues that we are working on together for the benefit of Russia, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Middle East and the world as well," the agency quoted the crown prince as saying.

Russia's defence ministry had shown the Putin's Ilyushin-96 aircraft flanked by Sukhoi-35S fighter jets on its flight from Russia to the United Arab Emirates, his first stop on the trip.

Moscow or Riyadh?

In Abu Dhabi, Putin said he intended to update President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan on the situation in the Ukraine.

A UAE official told Reuters that Putin's visit had allowed for an exchange of views on "a number of regional and international developments".

"The UAE is committed to continuous efforts with its international partners in working to reduce escalation, to find prospects for a peaceful political solution," the official said.

At the talks with MbS, Putin said that a planned visit by the prince to Russia had been changed at the last minute, prompting him to visit Riyadh.

"We awaited you in Moscow," Putin told MbS with a smile.

"I know that events forced a correction to those plans but as I have already said nothing can prevent the development of our friendly relations."

Putin then said: "But the next meeting should be in Moscow."

The crown prince said through a Russian translator that he was of course ready to do that.

"Then we are agreed," Putin said.

Putin's scope to travel abroad was limited in March when the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant against him for the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Moscow denied the charge, which constitutes a war crime, and called the court's move outrageous, saying it was legally void in any case because Russia is not a member of the ICC.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE is a member of the court either, so Putin can travel to both without fear of being arrested under the ICC warrant.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/692924
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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Putin and Saudi crown prince urge all Opec+ powers to join oil cuts

MOSCOW (Dec 7): Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called on Thursday for all Opec+ members to join an agreement on oil output cuts, saying they were for the good of producers and the broader global economy.

Putin held a hastily-arranged meeting in Riyadh with the Saudi crown prince on Wednesday after a pledge by Opec+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies led by Russia, to further cut output.

Hours after Putin's face-to-face talks with the Saudi crown prince, known as MbS, the Kremlin released a joint statement detailing wide-ranging talks between them on oil, Opec+, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and even Iran's nuclear programme.

"In the field of energy, the two sides commended the close cooperation between them and the successful efforts of the Opec+ countries in enhancing the stability of global oil markets," the statement released by the Kremlin said.

Saudi Arabia and Russia are the world's biggest oil exporters.

"They stressed the importance of continuing this cooperation, and the need for all participating countries to join to the Opec+ agreement, in a way that serves the interests of producers and consumers and supports the growth of the global economy," the statement, which was in Russian, added.

The Russian version used the word "join" while an English translation of the statement, also released by the Kremlin, used the word "adhere" to the Opec+ agreement.

The total curbs amount to 2.2 million bpd from eight producers, Opec said in a statement after last week's meeting. But not all Opec+ members agreed to extend or deepen the voluntary oil cuts.

After the Opec+ meeting, Saudi Arabia agreed to extend voluntary oil output cuts of one million barrels per day (bpd) into the first quarter, while Russia said it would continue to curb oil exports by 300,000 bpd and additionally reduce its fuel exports by 200,000 bpd in January-March.

Opec was founded in 1960 by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela and expanded to 13 members. In 2016, Opec signed an agreement with 10 other oil producers, including Russia, to create Opec+.

Russia and Saudi have coordinated supply cuts — both as part of Opec+ and with side agreements — to support oil prices in recent years.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/692924
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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How Opec+ saw its hold on global oil markets fray despite extra production cuts

Crude traders have shrugged off the Nov 30 pledge from Saudi Arabia and its allies to slash supplies by a further 900,000 barrels a day, remaining sceptical of its implementation. Despite the group’s multiple attempts to shore up sentiment in the past week, prices have crashed 11% to a five-month low.

Some of the most powerful figures in the oil world such as Saudi Arabia’s energy chief and Russia’s deputy prime minister have issued public assurances that the supply curbs could be extended beyond March. President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi in a show of oil producers’ unity. All to no avail.

Traders are doubtful that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies will deliver enough of the cutbacks to rein in a looming surplus. Fuel demand growth is slowing and rival supplies are climbing — especially from the cartel’s old nemesis, US shale drillers.

“The market has proved to be very disappointed in the Opec+ measures,” said Max Layton, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. The measures are “not enough to prevent a gradual deterioration of the oil balance” next year.

The extra cuts announced at the Nov 30 don’t take effect until January, and there is a precedent for the group’s actions taking some time to influence prices. The Saudis first announced their unilateral one million barrel-a-day production cut in June, but it wasn’t until July that a sustained rally in prices took hold.

But for now at least, the supply reductions aren’t have the desired effect. Oil prices have plunged nearly 25% since nearing US$100 (RM466.73) a barrel in London three months ago. While that move offers relief for consumers and central banks after years of rampant inflation, it poses an economic threat to the 23 nations of the Opec+ alliance. Crude futures traded near US$70 a barrel in New York on Thursday.

Global markets appear set for further weakness next year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as China’s demand is muted by financial difficulties while supplies around the world swell. US crude production has soared to record levels above 13 million barrels a day, as shale explorers are re-invigorated by the support Opec+ gave to prices earlier this year.

“Everyone’s turned negative oil, not least because the US has accelerated this year in terms of production,” Paul Sankey, founder of Sankey Research LLC, told Bloomberg television.

Cuts confusion

Last week, the darkening outlook spurred the Opec+ group — which had already kept millions of barrels off the market in the past year to prop up prices — to intervene again.

Yet initial price gains soon fizzled as the group’s new production levels emerged via a series of announcements from individual Opec+ members, without the usual table of formal quotas or a concluding press conference to clarify the details.

While Riyadh committed to extend its one million barrel-a-day cutback through to March, no new measures were offered by the kingdom, whose immense production capacity has been the cornerstone of previous accords. Instead, big contributions came from countries such as Iraq, which has a patchy track record on adhering to quotas.

Meanwhile, Russia has continued to cloud its exact obligations by saying its supply curbs would now consist of reductions to exports of either crude oil or refined products, the latter of which are not typically subject to Opec+ limits. Angola, after days of fractious debate, rejected its new quota entirely and insisted it would pump as much as it can.

Analysts delivered a scathing verdict. Consultant Vanda Insights branded the agreement a “confusing, entangled mess,” while Bank Julius Baer & Co Ltd said that its “fuzziness” could drag prices into the US$70s.

Negative optics

“The clunky optics of this Opec+ meeting will reinforce negative market sentiments heading into the new year,” said Bob McNally, president of consultants Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official.

It’s a marked contrast from previous Opec+ actions, like the record 10 million barrel-a-day supply cut that revived prices from a historic crash and rescued the oil industry when demand collapsed during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.

Sentiment didn’t improve when Opec+ revealed it had successfully recruited fast-growing producer Brazil into its charter, only for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to promptly explain his entry was intended to speed the group’s retirement of fossil fuels.

In the ensuing days, senior officials from the alliance made efforts to turn things around.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg television on Monday that the 23-nation coalition could “absolutely” prolong the measures beyond the first quarter of next year. The promised curbs “will happen” in full and prevent inventories rising next quarter, proving the deal’s critic’s “absolutely wrong”, he said.

Prices initially perked up after the prince’s statement, but promptly faltered again. His sentiment was echoed a day later by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and then on Wednesday by Algerian Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab, but again to little avail.

Depressed market

“The market seems little convinced about the petro-nations,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics at Bank Julius Baer & Co Ltd. The resulting mood is “exceptionally depressed”.

The coalition isn’t scheduled to meet again until June, and hasn’t yet set a date for the next gathering of the influential ministerial committee that oversees the cuts — something that typically happens every two months.

To revive flagging markets, Citigroup speculates that Opec+ could call another emergency meeting before the year is out. Others ponder whether it will shift course entirely.

“Opec’s strategy looks fragile,” because supporting prices is simply financing a tide of US shale oil, said Doug King, chief investment officer of the Merchant Commodity Fund. Riyadh is also ceding customers to political rival Iran, which has restored output to a five-year high by skirting American sanctions, said Sankey.

A “more logical plan” for the group would be to open the taps and send prices tumbling as it did in 2014, King said. That would increase demand and “meaningfully reset shale,” he said.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/693229
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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Opschudding op klimaatconferentie: OPEC vraagt leden in gelekte brief om zich te verzetten tegen afbouw fossiele brandstoffen

De vereniging van olieproducerende landen OPEC vraagt aan zijn leden om zich te verzetten tegen de uitfasering van fossiele brandstoffen op de klimaatconferentie in Dubai.

Als het aan de OPEC ligt, kan er enkel gepraat worden over de uitstoot van die brandstoffen en niet het gebruik ervan. Dat blijkt uit gelekte brieven aan OPEC-landen.

"De ontwerptekst (voor de slottekst van de klimaatconferentie, red.) bevat nog steeds opties over het uitfaseren van fossiele brandstoffen. Het lijkt erop dat de overdreven en disproportionele druk tegen fossiele brandstoffen een keerpunt kan bereiken met onomkeerbare gevolgen." Zo waarschuwt Haitham Al Ghais, de voorzitter van de OPEC, zijn leden in een brief die de Britse krant The Guardian en het persbureau Reuters konden inkijken. Reuters kon de echtheid van de brief naar eigen zeggen verifiëren bij verschillende bronnen.

De OPEC verenigt 13 olieproducerende landen waaronder Saudi-Arabië, Iran en Venezuela. Maar ook de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten, die de VN-klimaatconferentie momenteel organiseren, zijn er lid van. Samen zijn die landen goed voor 80 procent van alle olievoorraden wereldwijd. Ook enkele bondgenoten van de OPEC, de zogenaamde OPEC+-landen waaronder Mexico en Rusland, ontvingen de brief.

In die brief, die woensdag werd verstuurd, vraagt de OPEC aan zijn leden om "proactief gelijke welke tekst of formulering af te wijzen over energie, bijvoorbeeld fossiele brandstoffen, in plaats van uitstoot".

Einde van fossiele brandstoffen

Met "de ontwerptekst" bedoelt Al Ghais de slottekst van de klimaatconferentie (COP 28), die normaal dinsdag wordt afgeklopt. Over de verwoording in die tekst wordt momenteel druk onderhandeld. De toekomst van fossiele brandstoffen, en dus ook olie, is een van de belangrijkste onderwerpen op de klimaatconferentie.

Sommige landen dringen erop aan dat de wereld zich op het einde van de klimaatconferentie schaart achter het voornemen om af te stappen van fossiele brandstoffen. Een deadline is wellicht te hoog gegrepen. Maar alleen al het voornemen dat de wereld het gebruik van fossiele brandstoffen vermindert ("phasedown" in klimaatjargon) of ooit helemaal stopzet (phase-out) zou een doorbraak zijn.

Tot nu toe lukte dat nog maar één keer, op de klimaatconferentie in Glasgow van 2021. Toen ging het enkel over kolen, de fossiele energiebron met de hoogste klimaatimpact. Maar op de klimaatconferentie van vorig jaar in Egypte, ook een OPEC-land, verdwenen kolen opnieuw uit de slottekst.

Onder andere de EU wil nu opnieuw zo'n vermelding in de slottekst. "Ik wil dat deze COP het begin betekent van het einde van fossiele brandstoffen", zei EU-klimaatcommissaris Wopke Hoekstra in Dubai. "De wetenschap vraagt dat van ons, en onze kinderen verdienen dat."

Koolstofafvang

Maar de OPEC vreest voor zijn belangen. De olieproducerende landen willen niet dat er op de klimaatconferentie een akkoord komt over het einde van fossiele brandstoffen. Voor hen mag er enkel gesproken worden over de uitstoot van broeikasgassen die die brandstoffen veroorzaken.

De OPEC maakt zich immers sterk dat de technologie om broeikasgassen aan de schoorsteen af te vangen, de volgende jaren sterk zal verbeteren. En als je veel van die uitstoot kan opvangen, hoef je minder snel het gebruik van kolen, olie en gas af te bouwen, argumenteren ze.

Dit is een paniekreactie van olielanden bij wie de realiteit is ingedaald dat hun businessmodel op zijn laatste benen loopt.

Kiki Berkers, coördinator van de Klimaatcoalitie

Die technologie wordt op sommige plekken al toegepast. En het VN-klimaatpanel houdt er sterk rekening mee dat ze in de toekomst een belangrijke rol zal spelen in industrieën die moeilijk klimaatneutraal te maken zijn, zoals de cement- en staalproductie.

30.000 miljard dollar

Maar er is op dit moment weinig reden om aan te nemen dat koolstofafvang alleen ooit de volledige uitstoot van alle fossiele brandstoffen ongedaan zal kunnen maken.

Op dit moment staat de technologie nog in zijn kinderschoenen. Hij is de voorbije decennia ook nauwelijks goedkoper geworden, in tegenstelling tot bijvoorbeeld zonne-energie. Dat komt onder andere doordat de technologie moeilijk op te schalen is. Voor elke fabriek waar je koolstof wil afvangen, moet een afvanginstallatie op maat uitgewerkt worden.
Alleen koolstofafvang zonder ook het gebruik van fossiele brandstoffen drastisch af te bouwen, lijkt dus weinig realistisch.

De Universiteit van Oxford becijferde woensdag nog dat het de fossiele sector tot 30.000 miljard dollar zou kosten als het de klimaatdoelen van 2050 grotendeels met koolstofafvang wil halen. En vorige maand waarschuwde het Internationaal Energieagentschap dat de olie- en gasgiganten "de illusie moeten loslaten dat onmogelijk hoge hoeveelheden koolstofafvang de oplossing zijn".

De Duitse hoofdonderhandelaar op de Klimaatconferentie, Jennifer Morgan, zei dat ze "diep bezorgd" is over de boodschap in de OPEC-brief.

"Dit is een paniekreactie van olielanden bij wie de realiteit eindelijk is ingedaald, dat hun businessmodel op zijn laatste benen loopt", reageert Kiki Berkers, coördinator van de Klimaatcoalitie vanuit Dubai. "Ze missen een enorme kans, zowel voor henzelf als voor hun bevolking, om aan boord te springen van de hernieuwbare energietrein. OPEC staat voor een cruciale keuze: dragen we actief bij aan het rechtvaardige uitfasering van fossiele brandstoffen, of wegen korte-termijnwinsten zwaarder dan het voortbestaan van onze samenleving?"

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2023/12/09 ... ering-fos/
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

Bericht door NewB76 »

We kunnen niet direct zonder fossiele brandstoffen , China en India zullen nog wel jaren/decennia steenkool gebruiken .
En het Westen zal ook niet direct zonder fossiele brandstoffen kunnen .
Neem bv Duitsland : sluit zijn kerncentrales en blijft nog wat bruinkool verstoken.
En zijn electriciteitsnet heeft enorme behoeftes aan investeringen ( Noord-Zuid-verbinding is jaren achter op het schema ) . Belgie ook trouwens. (cfr Elia en Vulcanus )
Want nergens zijn de electriciteitsnetten bestand op een volledige electrificatie.
Maar er is wel degelijk een dilemma voor de olieproducerende landen .
Ofwel vandaag en morgen verkopen , ofwel overmorgen er mee blijven zitten .
Gaan er dan actueel productiebeperkingen komen ?
Om nog vlug wat te verkopen gaan ze de olieprijzen zeker niet verhogen , want dan worden investeringen in windturbines en zonnepanelen interessanter .
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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In het westen doen ze nu allemaal alsof ze dit niet wisten, hoe zouden deze landen dat kunnen stopzetten ? het is hun levenslijn tot ze zelf een echte industie opgezet hebben .....

Trouwens we doen zelf niet beter maar zwijgen daar discreet over, de Noren bijvoorbeeld zijn de grootste producenten van Europa maar dat willen we niet aan de grote klok hangen :oops: :oops: :oops:
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Re: OPEC en OPEC+

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Opec+ will need to maintain oil cuts through 2024, says Citi

(Dec 11): Opec+ will need to maintain its latest oil supply cuts throughout next year in order to keep the global market in balance, according to Citigroup Inc.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and its allies have announced that it will cut supplies by a further 900,000 barrels a day during the first quarter, and may prolong the measures if necessary. The 23-nation group led by Saudi Arabia will need to do exactly that to keep prices near current levels, the bank said.

“These cuts do need to be maintained to balance the market through the course of next year,” Max Layton, Citigroup’s global head of commodities research, told Bloomberg TV on Monday. “They can balance this market and keep prices at US$70 (RM326.71) to US$80 if they all work together.”

Traders have so far been unimpressed with the producer group’s pledges, remaining sceptical that it will cut supplies sufficiently to tame a surplus that’s looming in the first half of next year. Prices have retreated roughly 10% since the coalition met on Nov 30, trading near US$75 a barrel in London on Monday.

Yet a range of US$70 to US$80 a barrel may not be high enough for many of the coalition’s members to cover government spending. Saudi Arabia may need a price closer to US$100 a barrel, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Global markets face a surplus of roughly one million barrels a day during the second quarter, and about 600,000 a day during 2024 as a whole, said Layton, who recently succeeded veteran analyst Ed Morse in the role at Citigroup.

Still, much of the latest price move is “done” and the market is likely to be buoyed around US$75 a barrel as China — the biggest oil importer — rolls out a “significant” package to stimulate its economy, he added.

If Opec+ were to instead bring back all of their spare production capacity, then prices could crash by as much as 50%, Layton said.

This “alternative is so painful” that Opec+ is likely to stay the course, he said. “It’s within Opec’s grasp to hold the market together.”

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/693476
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