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Grondstoffen (algemeen)
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Iran’s $42 Billion Giant Lithium Mine | China is The Biggest Beneficiary!
With the rapid growth of global demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy, lithium resources have become one of the focuses of competition among the world's major powers.
Against this background, China, as the leader in the global electric vehicle industry, is actively expanding its influence in the acquisition and utilization of global lithium resources.
But China’s progress in the field of lithium resources has not been smooth sailing. In the process, China is facing fierce competition from Europe and the United States.
They not only compete fiercely with China on lithium resources, but also try to restrict China's development in this field through various means.
In March this year, Iran announced a shocking news: they discovered a huge super lithium mine with estimated reserves of up to 8.5 million tons, enough to support mining for the next 20 years.
But this discovery also caused concern in Western countries. If Iran finally hands over the mining rights of super lithium mines to China, it will make China more competitive in the electric vehicle industry chain and no longer subject to other countries.
With the rapid growth of global demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy, lithium resources have become one of the focuses of competition among the world's major powers.
Against this background, China, as the leader in the global electric vehicle industry, is actively expanding its influence in the acquisition and utilization of global lithium resources.
But China’s progress in the field of lithium resources has not been smooth sailing. In the process, China is facing fierce competition from Europe and the United States.
They not only compete fiercely with China on lithium resources, but also try to restrict China's development in this field through various means.
In March this year, Iran announced a shocking news: they discovered a huge super lithium mine with estimated reserves of up to 8.5 million tons, enough to support mining for the next 20 years.
But this discovery also caused concern in Western countries. If Iran finally hands over the mining rights of super lithium mines to China, it will make China more competitive in the electric vehicle industry chain and no longer subject to other countries.
- nobody
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Limburger eist 3,2 miljard euro van zandreus Sibelco
De Limburger Ivo Swerters eist een schadevergoeding van 3,2 miljard euro van de Kempense grondstoffenreus Sibelco omdat het bedrijf al decennia op illegale wijze duur kwartszand zou opdelven in Maasmechelen. Dat schrijven Het Belang van Limburg en Gazet van Antwerpen zaterdag.
Swenters is al jaren verwikkeld in een juridische veldslag met Sibelco. Hij bouwde in de jaren negentig een filterzandinstallatie, maar kwam daarmee op ramkoers met Sibelco. Wijlen baron Stanislas Emsens, destijds ceo, zette Swenters onder druk om die installatie weer af te breken en zich van de zandmarkt weg te houden.
Sibelco hield de juridische procedure met Swenters jarenlang verborgen voor de meeste aandeelhouders. Ze waren tot voor kort niet op de hoogte van de enorme schadeclaim van 3,2 miljard euro.
Volgens Swenters zijn er destijds bij de uitbatingsovereenkomst met Sibelco rond de groeve Mechelse Heide in Maasmechelen kartelafspraken gemaakt. Hij wijst op prijsafspraken en het voorbehouden van grondstoffen voor één bepaalde partij.
Swenters heeft de zaak inmiddels tot voor het Europese Hof van Justitie in Luxemburg gebracht.
"Sibelco heeft een potentiële concurrent jarenlang van de markt gehouden door kartelafspraken. Bovendien kreeg het bedrijf de vergunning zonder openbare aanbesteding in de schoot geworpen. Dat zijn inbreuken tegen het Europese mededingingsrecht. Intussen graaft het al jaren illegaal het witte goud van Limburg op."
https://www.msn.com/nl-be/nieuws/nation ... be8f&ei=20
De Limburger Ivo Swerters eist een schadevergoeding van 3,2 miljard euro van de Kempense grondstoffenreus Sibelco omdat het bedrijf al decennia op illegale wijze duur kwartszand zou opdelven in Maasmechelen. Dat schrijven Het Belang van Limburg en Gazet van Antwerpen zaterdag.
Swenters is al jaren verwikkeld in een juridische veldslag met Sibelco. Hij bouwde in de jaren negentig een filterzandinstallatie, maar kwam daarmee op ramkoers met Sibelco. Wijlen baron Stanislas Emsens, destijds ceo, zette Swenters onder druk om die installatie weer af te breken en zich van de zandmarkt weg te houden.
Sibelco hield de juridische procedure met Swenters jarenlang verborgen voor de meeste aandeelhouders. Ze waren tot voor kort niet op de hoogte van de enorme schadeclaim van 3,2 miljard euro.
Volgens Swenters zijn er destijds bij de uitbatingsovereenkomst met Sibelco rond de groeve Mechelse Heide in Maasmechelen kartelafspraken gemaakt. Hij wijst op prijsafspraken en het voorbehouden van grondstoffen voor één bepaalde partij.
Swenters heeft de zaak inmiddels tot voor het Europese Hof van Justitie in Luxemburg gebracht.
"Sibelco heeft een potentiële concurrent jarenlang van de markt gehouden door kartelafspraken. Bovendien kreeg het bedrijf de vergunning zonder openbare aanbesteding in de schoot geworpen. Dat zijn inbreuken tegen het Europese mededingingsrecht. Intussen graaft het al jaren illegaal het witte goud van Limburg op."
https://www.msn.com/nl-be/nieuws/nation ... be8f&ei=20
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Re: Sibelco
Ik denk het niet, het is een multinational die over de hele wereld aktief is!
https://www.sibelco.com/en
https://www.mo.be/reportage/kwartszand
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Guatemalan Ministry of Mines to review all mining licenses
The Guatemalan Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) will revise all decisions made in the recent past related to mining exploration, exploitation and export licenses.
According to local media, the new head of the MEM, Víctor Hugo Ventura, announced the measure in response to multiple complaints regarding bribes, corruption and other illegal activities taking place within the country’s mining sector.
Talking to journalists, Ventura noted that mining started in Guatemala 70 years ago and that all decisions that are made regarding the sector will balance out the social, economic, environmental and financial costs and benefits.
To deal with bribery and corruption accusations, the minister requested the support of the Comptroller General of Accounts, as well as information from interested parties, including countries such as the United States of America.
Ventura recalled that back in 2022, the US applied sanctions to the export licenses of Compañía Guatemalteca de Níquel (CGN), Compañía Procesadora de Níquel de Izabal (ProNiCo) and Mayaníquel, which are subsidiaries of the Swiss-based Solway Investment Group. These sanctions were lifted on the third week of January 2024 and Guatemalan authorities are asking for further information to re-authorize their operations.
The MEM’s approach is aimed at following the principles of transparency and zero tolerance for corruption that the administration of President Bernardo Arévalo is promoting, after taking office on January 15, 2024.
On the same note, the Guatemalan Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) announced that it will review Bluestone Resources’ (TSX-V: BSR) Cerro Blanco operation, whose environmental license was granted in 2007 and updated on January 9, 2024, giving the green light to open-pit exploitation of gold deposits in the Asunción Mita municipality.
Initially, the Vancouver-based miner had proposed an underground operation but decided to switch the mining method as a response to the results of advanced engineering and optimization work that revealed an opportunity to capitalize on the project’s near-surface, high-grade mineralization through an open-pit development scenario. The assessment showed a doubling of the gold resource ounces and production profile.
A feasibility study for Cerro Blanco released in February 2022 calls for an open-pit gold mine with an average annual production of 197,000 ounces over its 14-year life. At peak production, the operation would produce 347,000 ounces of gold a year.
However, the fact that an open-pit operation would require the use of cyanide set off the alarms of nine environmental groups both in Guatemala and El Salvador, who expressed concern over the potential contamination of shared freshwater bodies such as the Güija lagoon and the Lempa River. The latter is the main water source for San Salvador, the Salvadoran capital.
In a recent meeting between the Salvadoran Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexandra Hill, and the Guatemalan ambassador to El Salvador, Rubén Estuardo Nájera, the former expressed her concern over the mine.
Yet, Bluestone has said that the mine’s development plans include a cyanide destruction process to neutralize it, which should ease such concerns.
https://www.mining.com/guatemalan-minis ... -licenses/
The Guatemalan Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) will revise all decisions made in the recent past related to mining exploration, exploitation and export licenses.
According to local media, the new head of the MEM, Víctor Hugo Ventura, announced the measure in response to multiple complaints regarding bribes, corruption and other illegal activities taking place within the country’s mining sector.
Talking to journalists, Ventura noted that mining started in Guatemala 70 years ago and that all decisions that are made regarding the sector will balance out the social, economic, environmental and financial costs and benefits.
To deal with bribery and corruption accusations, the minister requested the support of the Comptroller General of Accounts, as well as information from interested parties, including countries such as the United States of America.
Ventura recalled that back in 2022, the US applied sanctions to the export licenses of Compañía Guatemalteca de Níquel (CGN), Compañía Procesadora de Níquel de Izabal (ProNiCo) and Mayaníquel, which are subsidiaries of the Swiss-based Solway Investment Group. These sanctions were lifted on the third week of January 2024 and Guatemalan authorities are asking for further information to re-authorize their operations.
The MEM’s approach is aimed at following the principles of transparency and zero tolerance for corruption that the administration of President Bernardo Arévalo is promoting, after taking office on January 15, 2024.
On the same note, the Guatemalan Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) announced that it will review Bluestone Resources’ (TSX-V: BSR) Cerro Blanco operation, whose environmental license was granted in 2007 and updated on January 9, 2024, giving the green light to open-pit exploitation of gold deposits in the Asunción Mita municipality.
Initially, the Vancouver-based miner had proposed an underground operation but decided to switch the mining method as a response to the results of advanced engineering and optimization work that revealed an opportunity to capitalize on the project’s near-surface, high-grade mineralization through an open-pit development scenario. The assessment showed a doubling of the gold resource ounces and production profile.
A feasibility study for Cerro Blanco released in February 2022 calls for an open-pit gold mine with an average annual production of 197,000 ounces over its 14-year life. At peak production, the operation would produce 347,000 ounces of gold a year.
However, the fact that an open-pit operation would require the use of cyanide set off the alarms of nine environmental groups both in Guatemala and El Salvador, who expressed concern over the potential contamination of shared freshwater bodies such as the Güija lagoon and the Lempa River. The latter is the main water source for San Salvador, the Salvadoran capital.
In a recent meeting between the Salvadoran Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexandra Hill, and the Guatemalan ambassador to El Salvador, Rubén Estuardo Nájera, the former expressed her concern over the mine.
Yet, Bluestone has said that the mine’s development plans include a cyanide destruction process to neutralize it, which should ease such concerns.
https://www.mining.com/guatemalan-minis ... -licenses/
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Selling Afghanistan oil for the first time.
SHKamran
Welcome to SHKamran YouTube channel, where we explore some of the most incredible mega projects happening around the world!
Join us as we dive into the fascinating world of cutting-edge construction and innovation, from awe-inspiring skyscrapers and massive infrastructure developments to groundbreaking technological wonders.
SHKamran
Welcome to SHKamran YouTube channel, where we explore some of the most incredible mega projects happening around the world!
Join us as we dive into the fascinating world of cutting-edge construction and innovation, from awe-inspiring skyscrapers and massive infrastructure developments to groundbreaking technological wonders.
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Codelco pays a heavy price for ramping up debt burden to fund over-budget projects
Codelco is paying a heavy price for increasing its already heavy debt load to finance late and over-budget projects that are needed to maintain its status as the world’s biggest copper supplier.
Chile’s state-owned miner sold two tranches of debt worth a total of $2 billion last week at 230 basis points and 235 points above US Treasuries, a wider spread than on its existing notes. The company’s debt burden is by far the largest among major copper producers tracked by Bloomberg, at about 5.8 times earnings before one-time items.
Proceeds will help the mining giant continue the overhaul of its aging deposits, seeking to compensate for a decline in ore quality that has seen production slump to a quarter-century low. Output has dropped much more than anticipated amid missteps and project delays.
“This is what happens when money is needed,” said William Snead, an analyst at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in New York. “Honestly, not necessarily a surprise given the funding needs.”
Codelco sold $1.5 billion of 12-year notes to yield 6.45%, as well as $500 million more of a previous issuance due in 2053, just four months after its prior sale. Both tightened from initial price talks of 265 basis points.
Still, the spread above the existing yield curve on the 12-year notes was higher than the spread on 2036 bonds sold by Colombia’s Ecopetrol SA earlier this month, an indication of the price Codelco had to pay to attract investors. Chile recently sold $1.7 billion of notes due in five years at a spread of 85 basis points over Treasuries, below its existing yield curve.
Codelco’s existing 2053 notes slid 1.3 cents to 95.3 cents on the dollar on the day of the issuance before recovering. The company’s bonds have the lowest returns since the start of the year among Chilean corporate dollar-denominated debt.
Still, demand for the new notes exceeded the offer by 3.75 times, with investors getting an attractive pickup over Chile’s sovereign bonds relative to other Latin American issuers, said Oren Barack, managing director of fixed income at New York-based Alliance Global Partners.
Codelco may have seen a window of opportunity given the risk of traders dialing back expectations of US rate cuts, Barack said.
“If rates move significantly toward the end of the year, which I think they will, they can go back to the markets,” he said.
Codelco needs the money after embarking on a $40 billion spending program following decades of underinvestment. Making matters harder still, it gives 10% of its sales and 70% of its profit to the state, making it dependent on debt markets to finance expansion.
The firm’s investment-grade credit rating has already been cut, and research center Cesco has warned that debt could rise to $30 billion by the end of the decade from over $20 billion now. New Chief Executive Officer Ruben Alvarado is looking for a gradual production recovery from this year.
“There’s no clear direction and the company is losing profitability and volume, and that makes it more vulnerable to price drops,” said Diego Ocampo, a senior director at S&P Global Ratings. “This path of continuing to issue debt to finance deficits deteriorates the credit profile.”
Still, further downgrades are unlikely given the government probably would support Codelco if needed, Ocampo said.
What’s more, “the recent downgrades and productivity issues seem for the most to be already priced in,” said BBVA’s Snead.
https://www.mining.com/web/codelco-pays ... -projects/
Codelco is paying a heavy price for increasing its already heavy debt load to finance late and over-budget projects that are needed to maintain its status as the world’s biggest copper supplier.
Chile’s state-owned miner sold two tranches of debt worth a total of $2 billion last week at 230 basis points and 235 points above US Treasuries, a wider spread than on its existing notes. The company’s debt burden is by far the largest among major copper producers tracked by Bloomberg, at about 5.8 times earnings before one-time items.
Proceeds will help the mining giant continue the overhaul of its aging deposits, seeking to compensate for a decline in ore quality that has seen production slump to a quarter-century low. Output has dropped much more than anticipated amid missteps and project delays.
“This is what happens when money is needed,” said William Snead, an analyst at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in New York. “Honestly, not necessarily a surprise given the funding needs.”
Codelco sold $1.5 billion of 12-year notes to yield 6.45%, as well as $500 million more of a previous issuance due in 2053, just four months after its prior sale. Both tightened from initial price talks of 265 basis points.
Still, the spread above the existing yield curve on the 12-year notes was higher than the spread on 2036 bonds sold by Colombia’s Ecopetrol SA earlier this month, an indication of the price Codelco had to pay to attract investors. Chile recently sold $1.7 billion of notes due in five years at a spread of 85 basis points over Treasuries, below its existing yield curve.
Codelco’s existing 2053 notes slid 1.3 cents to 95.3 cents on the dollar on the day of the issuance before recovering. The company’s bonds have the lowest returns since the start of the year among Chilean corporate dollar-denominated debt.
Still, demand for the new notes exceeded the offer by 3.75 times, with investors getting an attractive pickup over Chile’s sovereign bonds relative to other Latin American issuers, said Oren Barack, managing director of fixed income at New York-based Alliance Global Partners.
Codelco may have seen a window of opportunity given the risk of traders dialing back expectations of US rate cuts, Barack said.
“If rates move significantly toward the end of the year, which I think they will, they can go back to the markets,” he said.
Codelco needs the money after embarking on a $40 billion spending program following decades of underinvestment. Making matters harder still, it gives 10% of its sales and 70% of its profit to the state, making it dependent on debt markets to finance expansion.
The firm’s investment-grade credit rating has already been cut, and research center Cesco has warned that debt could rise to $30 billion by the end of the decade from over $20 billion now. New Chief Executive Officer Ruben Alvarado is looking for a gradual production recovery from this year.
“There’s no clear direction and the company is losing profitability and volume, and that makes it more vulnerable to price drops,” said Diego Ocampo, a senior director at S&P Global Ratings. “This path of continuing to issue debt to finance deficits deteriorates the credit profile.”
Still, further downgrades are unlikely given the government probably would support Codelco if needed, Ocampo said.
What’s more, “the recent downgrades and productivity issues seem for the most to be already priced in,” said BBVA’s Snead.
https://www.mining.com/web/codelco-pays ... -projects/
- nobody
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- Lid geworden op: 09 mar 2022 13:32
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Tantalex Lithium hits strategic milestone with first tin and tantalum batch produced
Proactive Investors
Tantalex Lithium CEO Eric Allard joined Steve Darling from Proactive to share news the company has proudly announced a significant milestone – the successful production of the inaugural batch of tin and tantalum concentrates at its TiTan alluvial plant, situated in the Manono region.
What sets this achievement apart is that the TiTan plant's production process adheres meticulously to the principles of the Responsible Minerals Initiative. This commitment to responsible sourcing of critical materials makes Tantalex's output highly coveted in the market, underlining the company's dedication to sustainability and ethical practices.
Notably, the outputs from the TiTan plant are an integral part of a strategic offtake agreement with AfriMet Resources Ag, further cementing Tantalex's position in the industry.
Allard further elaborated on the TiTan plant's impressive capabilities. Located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, this state-of-the-art facility boasts a designed capacity of 130 tonnes per hour, signifying its potential for substantial production. Currently, the plant is operating at around 50 tons per hour, running for an average of eight hours per day. However, the company is actively implementing continuous optimization measures at the site to achieve its maximum production capacity.
Allard revealed Tantalex's ambitious goal to ramp up production to a full 130 tons per hour, operating for 16 hours a day within the next three months. These measures include the deployment of a new scrubber trommel and an increase in the water supply to the plant, both of which will contribute to achieving optimal operational efficiency.
Proactive Investors
Tantalex Lithium CEO Eric Allard joined Steve Darling from Proactive to share news the company has proudly announced a significant milestone – the successful production of the inaugural batch of tin and tantalum concentrates at its TiTan alluvial plant, situated in the Manono region.
What sets this achievement apart is that the TiTan plant's production process adheres meticulously to the principles of the Responsible Minerals Initiative. This commitment to responsible sourcing of critical materials makes Tantalex's output highly coveted in the market, underlining the company's dedication to sustainability and ethical practices.
Notably, the outputs from the TiTan plant are an integral part of a strategic offtake agreement with AfriMet Resources Ag, further cementing Tantalex's position in the industry.
Allard further elaborated on the TiTan plant's impressive capabilities. Located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, this state-of-the-art facility boasts a designed capacity of 130 tonnes per hour, signifying its potential for substantial production. Currently, the plant is operating at around 50 tons per hour, running for an average of eight hours per day. However, the company is actively implementing continuous optimization measures at the site to achieve its maximum production capacity.
Allard revealed Tantalex's ambitious goal to ramp up production to a full 130 tons per hour, operating for 16 hours a day within the next three months. These measures include the deployment of a new scrubber trommel and an increase in the water supply to the plant, both of which will contribute to achieving optimal operational efficiency.
- nobody
- Forumveteraan
- Berichten: 14560
- Lid geworden op: 09 mar 2022 13:32
- Heeft bedankt: 1990 maal
- Is bedankt: 2852 maal
Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
Pentagon plans AI-based program to estimate prices for critical minerals
The US Department of Defense plans to develop a program to estimate prices and predict supplies of nickel, cobalt and other critical minerals, a move aimed at boosting market transparency but one that throws a new, uncertain variable into global metals markets.
The program, which received little attention after it was announced on a Pentagon website in October, is part of Washington’s broader efforts to jumpstart US production of critical minerals used in weapons manufacturing and the energy transition.
US output lags market leader China partly because attempts to build new American mines can be heavily influenced by commodity price swings. Jervois Global, for example, announced last year it would suspend construction of an Idaho cobalt project due in part to low market prices, even while Chinese cobalt miners – financially backed by Beijing – said they would boost production of the battery metal in a bid for greater market share.
An official rubric by which Washington estimates how much a specific metal should cost, though, could confuse metals markets by creating dueling structures for determining price, according to two sources who were not authorized to speak publicly.
Traditionally, metals prices are set by futures markets and pricing agencies and reflect what buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept using supply, demand and other factors.
The Pentagon’s work is being run by its Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) division, which was formed in response to the Soviet Union’s 1957 launch of the Sputnik 1 satellite and helped develop the Internet and the mRNA vaccine for Covid-19.
DARPA and the US Geological Survey plan to hire one or more private contractors to develop an artificial intelligence-backed model that would construct a metal’s “structural price” based on where and when it is produced, as well as labor, supply and other costs, according to documents seen by Reuters that describe the program, including a slide deck that DARPA presented last November to prospective contractors.
The DARPA program, known as Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN), is intended to boost price transparency for government agencies and commercial entities and offset the risk Washington believes futures markets and pricing agencies pose to national security, according to the documents.
The Pentagon believes commodity purchase transactions are negotiated using “opaque and flawed pricing data” that pose “substantial barriers to US commercial competition,” according to the documents, which referenced both futures exchanges and commercial pricing providers.
In a statement to Reuters on Jan. 16, DARPA said its efforts aim to “remove market opacity that can engender supply chain disruptions” and that the data will be used by government agencies and commercial entities. “The OPEN program is fundamentally about transparency,” a DARPA spokesperson said.
The US Geological Survey deferred comment to DARPA.
The Pentagon’s efforts are not intended to set an official US government metals price or replace the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets, the sources said.
However, the documents cited the LME’s 2022 nickel pricing fiasco as one of the “endogenous market dynamics and anticompetitive practices [that] can make futures markets a poor source of price information.”
Financial information firm S&P Global and defense contractor Lockheed Martin are among the companies that have applied, according the sources. S&P Global, which publishes benchmark prices for metals and other commodities, did not respond to requests for comment. Lockheed Martin deferred comment to DARPA and the US Geological Survey.
Bids were submitted in late November and a decision on the choice of one or more contractors could come as soon as this month, according to one of the sources.
The AI model will be rolled out in three phases over the course of two years, according to the documents.
OPEN also aims to predict how supply could be affected by unexpected market shocks such as labor strikes, although the contractors have been told not to predict natural disasters or other specific market events, the documents showed.
Market analysts typically estimate that roughly 5% of global production of a metal could be disrupted each year by such unexpected shocks.
‘Revolutionize’ pricing
As part of their presentation to prospective contractors last November, officials at DARPA’s Arlington, Virginia, headquarters described the program’s goal: “Revolutionize the construction and dissemination of price, supply, and demand predictions and forecasts in critical materials markets.”
Anticipating price swings and calculating what might be an appropriate value for a metal could give Pentagon officials a formula to time purchases for national stockpiles, one of the sources said.
The Pentagon this year, for example, plans to buy 1,300 metric tons of lanthanum, used in steel alloys, government records show. But lanthanum, one of the 17 rare earths, is not traded on futures exchanges and China’s control of the sector makes it difficult to determine whether prices offered reflect market fundamentals.
A 2021 spike in the price of coal caused a 200% jump in prices for magnesium that the Pentagon document said “further increased the opacity of the US critical material supply chain.” Magnesium can be produced alongside coal and is used to make missiles and other weaponry.
It is not clear how a US government metals price or supply estimate would be received by mining companies, their customers, and metals exchanges, all of whom have developed the existing market structure over hundreds of years.
Most metal is sold on long term contracts. Consumers, producers and traders often sell their unwanted metal on exchanges such as the LME, a market of last resort where prices are lower than in the physical market.
In the physical market, buyers typically pay a premium that takes into account costs such as those for transport, insurance and import taxes, above the LME price used as a reference.
Several lithium, rare earths, and graphite miners have begun charging premium prices for metals produced outside of China, but those terms are contractually negotiated and not influenced by any government price schema.
The LME said it expects the use of AI to analyze metals supply and demand to grow, but noted that its own prices are based “on real world transactions executed by market users across the globe.”
“The LME’s traded contracts are settled through the physical delivery of metals into our global warehouse network, ensuring LME prices fully reflect any shifts in physical market fundamentals,” a LME spokesperson said in response to questions from Reuters.
Any concerns that a US government “structural price” for a metal could conflict with futures exchanges and pricing providers is “beyond the scope” of OPEN’s aims, a DARPA spokesperson said.
The White House referred requests for comment to DARPA. The US Treasury Department did not respond to requests for comment.
(By Ernest Scheyder, Pratima Desai and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons)
https://www.mining.com/web/pentagon-pla ... -minerals/
The US Department of Defense plans to develop a program to estimate prices and predict supplies of nickel, cobalt and other critical minerals, a move aimed at boosting market transparency but one that throws a new, uncertain variable into global metals markets.
The program, which received little attention after it was announced on a Pentagon website in October, is part of Washington’s broader efforts to jumpstart US production of critical minerals used in weapons manufacturing and the energy transition.
US output lags market leader China partly because attempts to build new American mines can be heavily influenced by commodity price swings. Jervois Global, for example, announced last year it would suspend construction of an Idaho cobalt project due in part to low market prices, even while Chinese cobalt miners – financially backed by Beijing – said they would boost production of the battery metal in a bid for greater market share.
An official rubric by which Washington estimates how much a specific metal should cost, though, could confuse metals markets by creating dueling structures for determining price, according to two sources who were not authorized to speak publicly.
Traditionally, metals prices are set by futures markets and pricing agencies and reflect what buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept using supply, demand and other factors.
The Pentagon’s work is being run by its Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) division, which was formed in response to the Soviet Union’s 1957 launch of the Sputnik 1 satellite and helped develop the Internet and the mRNA vaccine for Covid-19.
DARPA and the US Geological Survey plan to hire one or more private contractors to develop an artificial intelligence-backed model that would construct a metal’s “structural price” based on where and when it is produced, as well as labor, supply and other costs, according to documents seen by Reuters that describe the program, including a slide deck that DARPA presented last November to prospective contractors.
The DARPA program, known as Open Price Exploration for National Security (OPEN), is intended to boost price transparency for government agencies and commercial entities and offset the risk Washington believes futures markets and pricing agencies pose to national security, according to the documents.
The Pentagon believes commodity purchase transactions are negotiated using “opaque and flawed pricing data” that pose “substantial barriers to US commercial competition,” according to the documents, which referenced both futures exchanges and commercial pricing providers.
In a statement to Reuters on Jan. 16, DARPA said its efforts aim to “remove market opacity that can engender supply chain disruptions” and that the data will be used by government agencies and commercial entities. “The OPEN program is fundamentally about transparency,” a DARPA spokesperson said.
The US Geological Survey deferred comment to DARPA.
The Pentagon’s efforts are not intended to set an official US government metals price or replace the London Metal Exchange (LME) and other futures markets, the sources said.
However, the documents cited the LME’s 2022 nickel pricing fiasco as one of the “endogenous market dynamics and anticompetitive practices [that] can make futures markets a poor source of price information.”
Financial information firm S&P Global and defense contractor Lockheed Martin are among the companies that have applied, according the sources. S&P Global, which publishes benchmark prices for metals and other commodities, did not respond to requests for comment. Lockheed Martin deferred comment to DARPA and the US Geological Survey.
Bids were submitted in late November and a decision on the choice of one or more contractors could come as soon as this month, according to one of the sources.
The AI model will be rolled out in three phases over the course of two years, according to the documents.
OPEN also aims to predict how supply could be affected by unexpected market shocks such as labor strikes, although the contractors have been told not to predict natural disasters or other specific market events, the documents showed.
Market analysts typically estimate that roughly 5% of global production of a metal could be disrupted each year by such unexpected shocks.
‘Revolutionize’ pricing
As part of their presentation to prospective contractors last November, officials at DARPA’s Arlington, Virginia, headquarters described the program’s goal: “Revolutionize the construction and dissemination of price, supply, and demand predictions and forecasts in critical materials markets.”
Anticipating price swings and calculating what might be an appropriate value for a metal could give Pentagon officials a formula to time purchases for national stockpiles, one of the sources said.
The Pentagon this year, for example, plans to buy 1,300 metric tons of lanthanum, used in steel alloys, government records show. But lanthanum, one of the 17 rare earths, is not traded on futures exchanges and China’s control of the sector makes it difficult to determine whether prices offered reflect market fundamentals.
A 2021 spike in the price of coal caused a 200% jump in prices for magnesium that the Pentagon document said “further increased the opacity of the US critical material supply chain.” Magnesium can be produced alongside coal and is used to make missiles and other weaponry.
It is not clear how a US government metals price or supply estimate would be received by mining companies, their customers, and metals exchanges, all of whom have developed the existing market structure over hundreds of years.
Most metal is sold on long term contracts. Consumers, producers and traders often sell their unwanted metal on exchanges such as the LME, a market of last resort where prices are lower than in the physical market.
In the physical market, buyers typically pay a premium that takes into account costs such as those for transport, insurance and import taxes, above the LME price used as a reference.
Several lithium, rare earths, and graphite miners have begun charging premium prices for metals produced outside of China, but those terms are contractually negotiated and not influenced by any government price schema.
The LME said it expects the use of AI to analyze metals supply and demand to grow, but noted that its own prices are based “on real world transactions executed by market users across the globe.”
“The LME’s traded contracts are settled through the physical delivery of metals into our global warehouse network, ensuring LME prices fully reflect any shifts in physical market fundamentals,” a LME spokesperson said in response to questions from Reuters.
Any concerns that a US government “structural price” for a metal could conflict with futures exchanges and pricing providers is “beyond the scope” of OPEN’s aims, a DARPA spokesperson said.
The White House referred requests for comment to DARPA. The US Treasury Department did not respond to requests for comment.
(By Ernest Scheyder, Pratima Desai and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Claudia Parsons)
https://www.mining.com/web/pentagon-pla ... -minerals/
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Re: Grondstoffen (algemeen)
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Yahoo Finance
Oil prices (CL=F, BZ=F) tick up on the first day of February as geopolitical tensions persist in the Red Sea region.
Goldman Sachs Head of Natural Gas Research Samantha Dart breaks down the oil market's monthly gains, stating there is still "a lot of supply spare capacity in the system" with minimal supply chain disruptions.
"We expect to see oil prices peaking this year in the low to mid-80s. so we're pretty close to those levels already.
We don't see a lot of fluctuations unless we have a significant supply disruption in the system," Dart explains to Yahoo Finance.
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