Al paaseitjes gekocht anyone? Schrik niet van de prijzen straks. Cocoa (of zoals wij zeggen cacao) futures dit jaar weer 70% hoger.
De cacao future is de benchmark voor de wereldwijde cacao markt. Bizar genoeg schrijf je in het Engels cocoa, en in het Nederlands cacao, maar dat is een detail. Onder dit artikel lees je de uitleg daarover.
De cacao future vertoonde vorig jaar al wilde sprongen, wat bij ons vooral bekend werd toen grondstoffenhandelaar Acomo een verlies op een shortpositie in die future van 6 miljoen euro moest opbiechten.
Gisteren ontstond er opnieuw een record in deze future. Voor het eerst werd er 7000 dollar per ton betaald in New York. Year to date staat deze future al 68%(!) hoger.
Reden is onder andere de slechte weersomstandigheden in twee van de landen waar veel cacao vandaan komt; Ivoorkust en Ghana.
De aanvoer in de havens van Ivoorkust ligt 30% onder dat van een jaar geleden en van de oogstperiode die straks in april begint wordt weinig verwacht, ook al doordat er veel verouderde zieke bomen zijn.
Volgens de autoriteiten in die landen verwacht men dat die zogeheten middenoogst een kwart lager zal uitkomen dan normaal gesproken het geval is.
Analisten van Citi Research gaven eerder dit jaar aan dat een prijs tussen de 7.000 en 10.000 dollar per ton mogelijk is dit jaar alvorens er in de loop van 2025 wat verlichting zou kunnen optreden.
Voor Europa wordt het nog penibeler, want de EU heeft ondertussen een wet aangenomen EU Deforestation Regulation waarin staat dat vanaf eind 2024 alleen gecertificeerd chocola onze landsgrenzen mag binnenkomen. De cacaobomen mogen niet op land geteeld zijn wat eerst bos was.
Hoe kunnen producenten hiermee omgaan?
Veel chocolademakers hebben hun voorraad enigszins ingedekt en kunnen nog wel even profiteren van wat lagere inkoopprijzen. Dit is echter tijdelijk want over het algemeen ging men wel uit van lagere prijzen in de toekomst.
Ondertussen is de consument natuurlijk de pineut. De prijzen gaan nu al fors omhoog, de doseringen in de uiteindelijke lekkernijen worden naar beneden bijgesteld en uiteindelijk zal de prijselastsiciteit haar werk doen en de vraag naar chocoladeproducten in lijn met de prijsverhogingen afnemen.
Voorlopig is de vraag echter nog veel groter dan het aanbod. Barry Callebaut, de grootste chocolatier ter wereld, verwacht dit seizoen een tekort van 500.000 ton.
De problemen in de productielanden zouden kunnen worden opgelost door meer te investeren, maar de prijzen die de boeren in die landen ontvangen voor hun producten zijn gebaseerd op de verkoopprijzen van het vorige jaar.
De vraag is dus wie nu profiteert van deze waanzinnige prijzen. De tussenhandel, de overheden in Ivoorkust en Ghana of de boeren zelf?
De consument in ieder geval niet en die zal zijn chocoladeconsumptie drastisch naar beneden bij gaan stellen. Dat zagen we vorig jaar al toen de paaseitjes opeens schrikbarend duur bleken en dit jaar zal dat dus nog veel erger zijn. Vrolijk Pasen!
En dan nog dit: Cacao of Cacao?
In theorie verwijst cacao naar de cacaobonen die nog niet geroosterd zijn, en is cocoa de benaming voor bonen die wel geroosterd zijn. Een product met het label cacao is dus de rauwe boon en wordt vaak verpakt als veganistische chocolade die minimaal bewerkt is zonder toevoegingen.
Cacao daarentegen is een verwerkt chocoladeproduct, zoals chocoladerepen en -poeder.
Het woord cacao is de botanische naam voor de boom waar chocolade van afkomstig is, is Theobroma Cacao. Het woord cacao is afkomstig van het Olmec-volk dat het huidige Mexico bewoonde, en er wordt aangenomen dat dit de uitspraak is die het dichtst in de buurt komt van de oorspronkelijke naam van de plant.
Chocola ging daarna over van de Olmec naar de Maya's en vandaar naar de Spanjaarden. Het woord cacao is het enige woord dat ooit in een van de Spaanstalige talen is gebruikt om te beschrijven wat Engelstaligen cocoa noemen.
Er wordt eigenlijk algemeen aangenomen dat het woord cocoa zijn oorsprong vindt in een spelfout - een fout die nooit werd gecorrigeerd en die misschien gemakkelijker uit te spreken was - die met succes de juiste vorm overnam.(bron: TheSpruceEats)
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Beleggen in cacao
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Ook Ingberg op X heeft het over de cacaoprijs.
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Cacaoprijs stijgt boven de 7.000 dollar per ton
Voor het eerst is 7.000 dollar betaald voor een ton cacao. De prijs van de grondstof voor chocolade is al maanden aan het stijgen.
Op de termijnmarkt in New York werd dinsdag 7.096 dollar betaald voor een ton cacao, of 5 procent meer dan de dag voorheen. Alleen al dit jaar is de grondstof 68 procent duurder geworden.
Er is paniek op de cacaomarkt. Een combinatie van slecht weer en structurele problemen - zoals oudere en zieke bomen - leidt tot kleinere oogsten en een dalende aanvoer.
Marktkenners sluiten niet uit dat de cacaoprijs kan stijgen tot 10.000 dollar per ton indien de bevoorrading achterblijft en de vraag naar chocolade hoog blijft.
https://www.msn.com/nl-be/financien/nie ... ocid=hpmsn
Voor het eerst is 7.000 dollar betaald voor een ton cacao. De prijs van de grondstof voor chocolade is al maanden aan het stijgen.
Op de termijnmarkt in New York werd dinsdag 7.096 dollar betaald voor een ton cacao, of 5 procent meer dan de dag voorheen. Alleen al dit jaar is de grondstof 68 procent duurder geworden.
Er is paniek op de cacaomarkt. Een combinatie van slecht weer en structurele problemen - zoals oudere en zieke bomen - leidt tot kleinere oogsten en een dalende aanvoer.
Marktkenners sluiten niet uit dat de cacaoprijs kan stijgen tot 10.000 dollar per ton indien de bevoorrading achterblijft en de vraag naar chocolade hoog blijft.
https://www.msn.com/nl-be/financien/nie ... ocid=hpmsn
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Voor de liefhebbers;
Ticker 4RUP
Der WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged bildet den Bloomberg Cocoa Leverage (2x) Index nach. Der Bloomberg Cocoa Leverage (2x) Index bildet die zweifach gehebelte Wertentwicklung des Bloomberg Cocoa Index ab. Der Bloomberg Cocoa Index bietet Zugang zur Wertentwicklung von Kakao-Futures.
Die TER (Gesamtkostenquote) des ETC liegt bei 0,98% p.a.. Der ETC bildet die Wertentwicklung des Index synthetisch durch Swaps (Finanz-Tauschgeschäfte) nach.
Der WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged ist ein sehr kleiner ETC mit 7 Mio. Euro Fondsvolumen. Der ETC wurde am 11. März 2008 in Jersey aufgelegt.
https://www.justetf.com/at/etf-profile. ... uebersicht
Ticker 4RUP
Der WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged bildet den Bloomberg Cocoa Leverage (2x) Index nach. Der Bloomberg Cocoa Leverage (2x) Index bildet die zweifach gehebelte Wertentwicklung des Bloomberg Cocoa Index ab. Der Bloomberg Cocoa Index bietet Zugang zur Wertentwicklung von Kakao-Futures.
Die TER (Gesamtkostenquote) des ETC liegt bei 0,98% p.a.. Der ETC bildet die Wertentwicklung des Index synthetisch durch Swaps (Finanz-Tauschgeschäfte) nach.
Der WisdomTree Cocoa 2x Daily Leveraged ist ein sehr kleiner ETC mit 7 Mio. Euro Fondsvolumen. Der ETC wurde am 11. März 2008 in Jersey aufgelegt.
https://www.justetf.com/at/etf-profile. ... uebersicht
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Chocolate price to soar anew as cocoa output fails
Reuters
Major cocoa processing plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have halted operations due to insufficient funds for bean purchases, according to four trading sources, meaning chocolate prices around the world are likely to soar.
Reuters
Major cocoa processing plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have halted operations due to insufficient funds for bean purchases, according to four trading sources, meaning chocolate prices around the world are likely to soar.
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Cocoa processing factories in Ivory Coast, Ghana face closer amid biting shortage
AFRICA—In a dire turn of events for the global cocoa industry, major cocoa processing plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have halted or reduced operations due to financial constraints in acquiring cocoa beans, potentially catapulting chocolate prices worldwide to unprecedented heights.
This revelation comes amidst a backdrop of successive years of diminished cocoa harvests in these two leading cocoa-producing nations. Worse still, prospects show that there will be yet another disappointing harvest looming on the horizon.
Transcao, an Ivorian state-controlled cocoa bean processor, has ceased its bean procurement operations due to these pricing concerns.
While the company continues processing from existing stock, insiders reveal that its operational capacity remains severely hit, with whispers of imminent shutdowns echoing within the company. Additionally, global trading giant Cargill faced similar challenges in sourcing beans for its major processing plant in Ivory Coast, prompting a temporary cessation of operations.
Ghana, which is the second largest cocoa producer, has seen most of its processing plants suspend their operations intermittently.
For instance, the state-owned Cocoa Processing Company (CPC) has had on and off operations since it commenced its production season in June. The company actually admitted to operating at a mere 20% of its capacity due to bean shortage.
This shortage has had its effects trickle down to the preexisting cocoa supply chain. Typically, farmers would sell beans to local dealers who would, in turn, supply them to processing plants or global traders.
Under normal circumstances, this process operates under stringent regulations, with pre-arranged prices set well in advance between local traders and farmers.
However, the current shortage has thrown this system into disarray – local dealers have resorted to offering additional premium prices to farmers to secure beans, thereby inflating spot market prices.
Since global traders have the financial muscle to procure the beans at any cost to fulfill their commitments with chocolate manufacturers, local processors are grappling with acute shortages.
Despite efforts by Ivorian and Ghanaian authorities to shield local plants by offering financial assistance or imposing limits on bean purchases by global traders, the looming crisis persists unabated.
Shortage leads to escalating consumer prices
Consequently, chocolate makers have been compelled to pass on the escalating costs to consumers, with US retail stores registering an 11.6% increase in chocolate product prices in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) anticipates a significant shortfall in global cocoa production this season, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and depleting cocoa stocks to their lowest levels in 45 years.
Looking ahead, experts warn of the potential for another deficit in the upcoming season, underscoring the urgent need for coordinated action to address the underlying issues plaguing the cocoa industry.
With the specter of a prolonged crisis looming large, stakeholders must come together to navigate these turbulent waters and safeguard the future of one of the world’s most cherished commodities.
https://www.foodbusinessafrica.com/coco ... -shortage/
AFRICA—In a dire turn of events for the global cocoa industry, major cocoa processing plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have halted or reduced operations due to financial constraints in acquiring cocoa beans, potentially catapulting chocolate prices worldwide to unprecedented heights.
This revelation comes amidst a backdrop of successive years of diminished cocoa harvests in these two leading cocoa-producing nations. Worse still, prospects show that there will be yet another disappointing harvest looming on the horizon.
Transcao, an Ivorian state-controlled cocoa bean processor, has ceased its bean procurement operations due to these pricing concerns.
While the company continues processing from existing stock, insiders reveal that its operational capacity remains severely hit, with whispers of imminent shutdowns echoing within the company. Additionally, global trading giant Cargill faced similar challenges in sourcing beans for its major processing plant in Ivory Coast, prompting a temporary cessation of operations.
Ghana, which is the second largest cocoa producer, has seen most of its processing plants suspend their operations intermittently.
For instance, the state-owned Cocoa Processing Company (CPC) has had on and off operations since it commenced its production season in June. The company actually admitted to operating at a mere 20% of its capacity due to bean shortage.
This shortage has had its effects trickle down to the preexisting cocoa supply chain. Typically, farmers would sell beans to local dealers who would, in turn, supply them to processing plants or global traders.
Under normal circumstances, this process operates under stringent regulations, with pre-arranged prices set well in advance between local traders and farmers.
However, the current shortage has thrown this system into disarray – local dealers have resorted to offering additional premium prices to farmers to secure beans, thereby inflating spot market prices.
Since global traders have the financial muscle to procure the beans at any cost to fulfill their commitments with chocolate manufacturers, local processors are grappling with acute shortages.
Despite efforts by Ivorian and Ghanaian authorities to shield local plants by offering financial assistance or imposing limits on bean purchases by global traders, the looming crisis persists unabated.
Shortage leads to escalating consumer prices
Consequently, chocolate makers have been compelled to pass on the escalating costs to consumers, with US retail stores registering an 11.6% increase in chocolate product prices in 2023 compared to the previous year.
Additionally, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) anticipates a significant shortfall in global cocoa production this season, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and depleting cocoa stocks to their lowest levels in 45 years.
Looking ahead, experts warn of the potential for another deficit in the upcoming season, underscoring the urgent need for coordinated action to address the underlying issues plaguing the cocoa industry.
With the specter of a prolonged crisis looming large, stakeholders must come together to navigate these turbulent waters and safeguard the future of one of the world’s most cherished commodities.
https://www.foodbusinessafrica.com/coco ... -shortage/
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Cacaoprijs schiet omhoog met Pasen voor de deur: prijs verdubbeld sinds januari
De prijs van cacaobonen - de grondstof voor chocolade - schiet nog hoger nu Pasen nadert. In 3 maanden tijd is een ton cacao dubbel zo duur geworden.
Op de termijnmarkt in New York staat een nieuw record voor cacao in de tabellen: 8.384 dollar voor een ton. Dat komt neer op een verdubbeling sinds begin 2024.
De prijzen versnellen met Pasen in aantocht. In grote delen van de wereld worden dan traditioneel chocolade-eieren gegeten. Ook al kopen chocoladeproducenten hun cacao normaal maanden op voorhand, toch begint de hausse door te wegen bij de producenten en wordt het ook merkbaar in de winkelrekken.
Er is paniek op de cacaomarkt. Een combinatie van slecht weer en structurele problemen - zoals oudere en zieke bomen - leidt tot kleinere oogsten in West-Afrika, waar het merendeel van de cacao vandaan komt.
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/03/18 ... lade-duur/
De prijs van cacaobonen - de grondstof voor chocolade - schiet nog hoger nu Pasen nadert. In 3 maanden tijd is een ton cacao dubbel zo duur geworden.
Op de termijnmarkt in New York staat een nieuw record voor cacao in de tabellen: 8.384 dollar voor een ton. Dat komt neer op een verdubbeling sinds begin 2024.
De prijzen versnellen met Pasen in aantocht. In grote delen van de wereld worden dan traditioneel chocolade-eieren gegeten. Ook al kopen chocoladeproducenten hun cacao normaal maanden op voorhand, toch begint de hausse door te wegen bij de producenten en wordt het ook merkbaar in de winkelrekken.
Er is paniek op de cacaomarkt. Een combinatie van slecht weer en structurele problemen - zoals oudere en zieke bomen - leidt tot kleinere oogsten in West-Afrika, waar het merendeel van de cacao vandaan komt.
https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2024/03/18 ... lade-duur/
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Cocoa is more expensive than copper as it tops US$9,000
(March 26): Cocoa extended its surge — gaining more than US$700 (RM3,307) per ton in a single day and surpassing US$9,000 for the first time ever — as a supply crunch grips the market and chocolate makers grapple for beans.
Futures in New York climbed for a fourth straight day, adding to gains after news about funding challenges in Ghana, the world’s second-largest grower.
The country is set to lose access to a key funding facility as a crisis in its cocoa crop has left it without enough beans to secure the money. The Ghana Cocoa Board, the industry regulator known as Cocobod, relies on foreign financing to pay cocoa farmers for their beans.
Prices are up about 60% this month alone and have more than doubled already this year. Poor harvests on the back of bad weather and crop disease in West African growers, where most of the world’s cocoa is grown, and little sign of production relief elsewhere have left the industry in a bind.
The rally has sent prices toward US$10,000 — a level that seemed unthinkable only a few months ago — and even made cocoa more expensive than bellwether industrial metal copper.
Cocoa’s advance will feed through into higher chocolate costs throughout the year. Easter eggs are already getting more expensive due to last year’s price jump, and some manufacturers are curbing bar sizes or promoting varieties with other ingredients to soften the blow.
Futures rose 7.9% to settle at US$9,649 per metric ton in New York. Prices have kept climbing despite a technical gauge being in overbought territory for much of the last couple of months. Cocoa in London also climbed.
“Chocolate may be even more expensive in Easter 2025, if cocoa-tree diseases and inclement weather prolong the deficit amid high sugar prices,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Diana Gomes said in a note on Friday.
While prices have soared, speculators have actually been pulling out of the market. Open interest — the number of outstanding contracts — has dropped from a peak in late January, and money managers cut their net-bullish wagers to a one-year low in the latest week. That suggests that physical buyers may have played a key role in the price rally.
There’s a risk the supply situation may worsen. Incoming European Union rules — aimed at stopping products that destroy forests from being sold in shops — may make it even harder for the bloc’s top chocolate makers to secure supplies.
Focus is now turning to West Africa’s upcoming mid-crop, the smaller of two annual harvests. Top grower Ivory Coast’s regulator expects that to shrink this season, Bloomberg reported earlier this month.
Prices in softs markets:
-Cocoa settled 7.9% higher in New York at US$9,649 per ton
-Cocoa futures in London gained 9.8% to £8,193 (RM48,912) per ton
-Raw sugar and arabica coffee also gained
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/705934
(March 26): Cocoa extended its surge — gaining more than US$700 (RM3,307) per ton in a single day and surpassing US$9,000 for the first time ever — as a supply crunch grips the market and chocolate makers grapple for beans.
Futures in New York climbed for a fourth straight day, adding to gains after news about funding challenges in Ghana, the world’s second-largest grower.
The country is set to lose access to a key funding facility as a crisis in its cocoa crop has left it without enough beans to secure the money. The Ghana Cocoa Board, the industry regulator known as Cocobod, relies on foreign financing to pay cocoa farmers for their beans.
Prices are up about 60% this month alone and have more than doubled already this year. Poor harvests on the back of bad weather and crop disease in West African growers, where most of the world’s cocoa is grown, and little sign of production relief elsewhere have left the industry in a bind.
The rally has sent prices toward US$10,000 — a level that seemed unthinkable only a few months ago — and even made cocoa more expensive than bellwether industrial metal copper.
Cocoa’s advance will feed through into higher chocolate costs throughout the year. Easter eggs are already getting more expensive due to last year’s price jump, and some manufacturers are curbing bar sizes or promoting varieties with other ingredients to soften the blow.
Futures rose 7.9% to settle at US$9,649 per metric ton in New York. Prices have kept climbing despite a technical gauge being in overbought territory for much of the last couple of months. Cocoa in London also climbed.
“Chocolate may be even more expensive in Easter 2025, if cocoa-tree diseases and inclement weather prolong the deficit amid high sugar prices,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Diana Gomes said in a note on Friday.
While prices have soared, speculators have actually been pulling out of the market. Open interest — the number of outstanding contracts — has dropped from a peak in late January, and money managers cut their net-bullish wagers to a one-year low in the latest week. That suggests that physical buyers may have played a key role in the price rally.
There’s a risk the supply situation may worsen. Incoming European Union rules — aimed at stopping products that destroy forests from being sold in shops — may make it even harder for the bloc’s top chocolate makers to secure supplies.
Focus is now turning to West Africa’s upcoming mid-crop, the smaller of two annual harvests. Top grower Ivory Coast’s regulator expects that to shrink this season, Bloomberg reported earlier this month.
Prices in softs markets:
-Cocoa settled 7.9% higher in New York at US$9,649 per ton
-Cocoa futures in London gained 9.8% to £8,193 (RM48,912) per ton
-Raw sugar and arabica coffee also gained
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/705934
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Cocoa breaks US$10,000 record, with pricier chocolate to follow
(March 26): Cocoa futures surged above an unprecedented US$10,000 (RM47,205) a tonne, extending a historic rally that’s already seen prices double this year and which is raising the cost of chocolate.
The market is being rattled by poor crops in key West African growers that has put the world on course for a third straight annual supply deficit. The industry is grappling with the legacy of poor returns paid to cocoa farmers and fears are mounting about being able to source enough beans.
As well as concerns about scarce physical supplies, pressures are also building in the financial market, where some traders have sold futures to hedge against physical holdings. But as they wait for the contracts to mature they need cash to meet margin calls on losses on derivatives, and in a rising market can be forced to close out short positions, helping to fuel the rally.
Futures jumped as much as 4.5% to US$10,080 in New York on Tuesday — a level that seemed unthinkable only a few months ago. The rally has pushed a technical gauge of prices into overbought territory for much of the last couple of months, though cocoa has continued to soar.
“When we’re at this price, it’s hard to tell whether these prices are justified,” said Paul Joules, an analyst at Rabobank in London. “Whenever we have a dip in the market, it seems to shoot straight back up, which is more to do with the commercials, they’ve been net buyers.”
Cocoa’s advance is bad news for consumers if chocolatiers keep passing on costs or sell bars that are smaller or have less chocolate in them. The looming Easter holiday is a peak period for chocolate consumption, and the lag between commodity and retail markets mean the brunt of the impact for shoppers still lies ahead.
There’s a risk the supply situation may worsen. Incoming European Union rules — aimed at stopping products that destroy forests from being sold in shops — may make it even harder for the bloc’s chocolate makers to secure supplies.
New harvest
Focus is now turning to West Africa’s upcoming mid-crop, the smaller of two annual harvests. Top grower Ivory Coast’s regulator expects that to shrink this season, Bloomberg has reported.
“The West African supply situation remains extremely tight going into the start of the mid-crop harvest next week, and that continues to underpin cocoa prices,” The Hightower Report said in a note.
Other growers, like Brazil and Ecuador, are seeking to ramp up production, but it takes a few years before newly-planted cocoa trees bear beans — delaying the relief to strained global supplies. A ratio of stockpiles-to-grindings will fall to the lowest in more than four decades this season, the International Cocoa Organization has forecast, reflecting the market’s precarious position.
Cocoa was up 3.5% at US$9,991 in New York on Tuesday. In other softs markets, raw sugar rose 1% and arabica coffee edged higher.
In London, most-active cocoa futures have also more than doubled this year.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/705934
(March 26): Cocoa futures surged above an unprecedented US$10,000 (RM47,205) a tonne, extending a historic rally that’s already seen prices double this year and which is raising the cost of chocolate.
The market is being rattled by poor crops in key West African growers that has put the world on course for a third straight annual supply deficit. The industry is grappling with the legacy of poor returns paid to cocoa farmers and fears are mounting about being able to source enough beans.
As well as concerns about scarce physical supplies, pressures are also building in the financial market, where some traders have sold futures to hedge against physical holdings. But as they wait for the contracts to mature they need cash to meet margin calls on losses on derivatives, and in a rising market can be forced to close out short positions, helping to fuel the rally.
Futures jumped as much as 4.5% to US$10,080 in New York on Tuesday — a level that seemed unthinkable only a few months ago. The rally has pushed a technical gauge of prices into overbought territory for much of the last couple of months, though cocoa has continued to soar.
“When we’re at this price, it’s hard to tell whether these prices are justified,” said Paul Joules, an analyst at Rabobank in London. “Whenever we have a dip in the market, it seems to shoot straight back up, which is more to do with the commercials, they’ve been net buyers.”
Cocoa’s advance is bad news for consumers if chocolatiers keep passing on costs or sell bars that are smaller or have less chocolate in them. The looming Easter holiday is a peak period for chocolate consumption, and the lag between commodity and retail markets mean the brunt of the impact for shoppers still lies ahead.
There’s a risk the supply situation may worsen. Incoming European Union rules — aimed at stopping products that destroy forests from being sold in shops — may make it even harder for the bloc’s chocolate makers to secure supplies.
New harvest
Focus is now turning to West Africa’s upcoming mid-crop, the smaller of two annual harvests. Top grower Ivory Coast’s regulator expects that to shrink this season, Bloomberg has reported.
“The West African supply situation remains extremely tight going into the start of the mid-crop harvest next week, and that continues to underpin cocoa prices,” The Hightower Report said in a note.
Other growers, like Brazil and Ecuador, are seeking to ramp up production, but it takes a few years before newly-planted cocoa trees bear beans — delaying the relief to strained global supplies. A ratio of stockpiles-to-grindings will fall to the lowest in more than four decades this season, the International Cocoa Organization has forecast, reflecting the market’s precarious position.
Cocoa was up 3.5% at US$9,991 in New York on Tuesday. In other softs markets, raw sugar rose 1% and arabica coffee edged higher.
In London, most-active cocoa futures have also more than doubled this year.
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/705934
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Chocolate prices set to further skyrocket as cocoa beans price hit all-time high
WEST AFRICA —Chocolate consumers are likely to face a surge in chocolate candy prices this Easter amid the worst supply deficit in decades.
This comes as cocoa prices hit a record high of $10,080 per metric ton on Tuesday, March 26th, before slightly retracting to settle at $9,622.
This surge reflects a staggering increase of more than triple the cost over the past year, with a remarkable 129% rise recorded in 2024 alone.
This recent spike in cocoa prices has been fueled by reports from West Africa, where most cocoa plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped or reduced processing due to challenges in cocoa bean procurement.
Additionally, heavy rainfall and the rampant spread of black pod disease in these regions, as highlighted in a November report by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), have severely hampered farming activities.
“As these two leading producing countries supply about two-thirds of global cocoa beans, any change in their production tends to have a significant impact on the cocoa market,” the ICCO said.
According to this report, most farmers also rely on aging cocoa trees, most of which have surpassed their peak productivity – with no significant replanting efforts since the early 2000s, things are only going to get worse from here.
Consequently, cocoa farmers in these regions are increasingly abandoning cocoa cultivation in favor of more lucrative crops like rubber, claiming that they are not reaping the benefits of the current price rally.
According to Paul Joules, a commodities analyst at Rabobank, large companies were able to mitigate the effects of rising prices last year, thanks to hedging strategies.
However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for these companies to continue absorbing the escalating costs.
For instance, chocolate giant Hershey is already experiencing flat earnings projections for the year.
The company’s stock has also plummeted approximately 22% over the past 12 months, while Nestle’s Switzerland-listed shares have also witnessed a decline of about 13% during the same period.
https://www.foodbusinessafrica.com/choc ... time-high/
WEST AFRICA —Chocolate consumers are likely to face a surge in chocolate candy prices this Easter amid the worst supply deficit in decades.
This comes as cocoa prices hit a record high of $10,080 per metric ton on Tuesday, March 26th, before slightly retracting to settle at $9,622.
This surge reflects a staggering increase of more than triple the cost over the past year, with a remarkable 129% rise recorded in 2024 alone.
This recent spike in cocoa prices has been fueled by reports from West Africa, where most cocoa plants in Ivory Coast and Ghana have stopped or reduced processing due to challenges in cocoa bean procurement.
Additionally, heavy rainfall and the rampant spread of black pod disease in these regions, as highlighted in a November report by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO), have severely hampered farming activities.
“As these two leading producing countries supply about two-thirds of global cocoa beans, any change in their production tends to have a significant impact on the cocoa market,” the ICCO said.
According to this report, most farmers also rely on aging cocoa trees, most of which have surpassed their peak productivity – with no significant replanting efforts since the early 2000s, things are only going to get worse from here.
Consequently, cocoa farmers in these regions are increasingly abandoning cocoa cultivation in favor of more lucrative crops like rubber, claiming that they are not reaping the benefits of the current price rally.
According to Paul Joules, a commodities analyst at Rabobank, large companies were able to mitigate the effects of rising prices last year, thanks to hedging strategies.
However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for these companies to continue absorbing the escalating costs.
For instance, chocolate giant Hershey is already experiencing flat earnings projections for the year.
The company’s stock has also plummeted approximately 22% over the past 12 months, while Nestle’s Switzerland-listed shares have also witnessed a decline of about 13% during the same period.
https://www.foodbusinessafrica.com/choc ... time-high/
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Re: Beleggen in cacao
Cocoa’s relentless rally is pushing the market to breaking point
(March 29): The global cocoa market is buckling under the strain of unprecedented shortages.
A once-unimaginable rally that upended physical trading is now filtering rapidly through to the futures market. Prices that have more than doubled in just three months are forcing traders, processors and chocolate makers to stump up more cash to cover their trades or head for the exit.
That’s raising the spectre of company failures like the ones that plagued European utilities during the recent energy crisis, when gas prices spiralled out of control and governments were forced to bail them out. There are fears it could be worse — some traders are even alluding to a nickel-type meltdown that rattled the London Metal Exchange.
“It’s hard to understand the magnitude of the price rise with panic in the physical market and lack of performance by suppliers due to the crop failure being the driver,” said Pam Thornton, a veteran commodity trader at Nightingale Investment Management, who’s best known for her role at former cocoa hedge fund Armajaro Asset Management. “When you have moves of this magnitude, there are usually casualties and I’m amazed I haven’t heard of any yet.”
Cocoa futures have surged as poor harvests in West Africa, where most of the world’s beans are grown, sparked a third year of shortages. There’s a risk the crunch could be long-lasting, with climate change and crop disease ravaging trees and concerns mounting that production in Ivory Coast and Ghana has entered a period of structural decline.
Prices in New York are heading for their best month ever, and there are already signs of stress building across the industry.
Switzerland’s Barry Callebaut AG, the largest maker of bulk chocolate, in January said it expected “an industry wide impact on working capital requirements”, It said it addressed the concern by issuing 600 million Swiss francs (RM3.15 billion) in bonds to refinance securities due in May, as well as increasing a credit line and securing another loan.
While Barry Callebaut’s shares have dropped by about a third in the past year, investor Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc has just increased its stake, expressing longer-term confidence in the company.
Acomo NV, owner of Dutch trader Tradin Organic, said last year’s earnings were “materially impacted by the unprecedented increase in cocoa prices, resulting in lower demand and hedging losses”. Chocolate companies are also feeling the pinch, with BNP Paribas Exane downgrading Hershey Co due to surging costs.
Bean shortages
Scarce supplies first sparked a race to secure beans where they’re grown. In Ivory Coast, many traders and processors rushed to source supplies by paying farmers more than the prices set by the government. Others have turned to smaller producers like Ecuador and Indonesia, but it won’t be enough.
Barry Callebaut expects a deficit of about 500,000 tons this season, equal to about a 10th of the global market. The firm, a supplier to the likes of Mars Inc and Nestle SA, predicts another shortfall of 150,000 tons next season.
The shortages are roiling the futures market. As prices rise, traders with short positions — including those who’ve sold futures to hedge against physical holdings — have to come up with more money to pay margin calls, which work as an insurance policy to cover potential losses. Those who can’t are forced to buy back contracts, pushing up prices further and creating a vicious circle.
That’s exactly what happened in the gas market when Russia began restricting supplies to Europe. Prices spiralled out of control and companies started to fail one after another. German utilities including Uniper SE and the former European trading and supply unit of Gazprom PJSC had to be rescued.
In nickel, a runaway short squeeze centred on the world’s top producer in 2022 created so much market stress that it put others at risk of failing too. But unlike the LME, Intercontinental Exchange Inc is unlikely to intervene and halt cocoa trading to protect those vulnerable in the market.
ICE has however taken several steps to tame the rally and keep the London and New York markets orderly. The bourse increased margins several times this year and reduced the threshold for when market players need to disclose more information about their positions.
In London, where Ivory Coast and Ghana hedge their sales, the exchange is gradually cutting the amount traders can buy through its market. The so-called delivery limit is going from 75,000 tons in May to 50,000 tons in July, and down progressively until it reaches 25,000 tons for the December contract onward.
“It is a moment of great uncertainty, and the exchange measures are to avoid the market from being even more squeezed,” said Leonardo Rossetti, an analyst at brokerage StoneX.
Exchange role
ICE Futures Europe President Christopher Rhodes said the cocoa market is serving its function as a venue to manage price risk, and pointed to speculators curbing their positions.
“Derivatives markets facilitate price discovery, allow customers to manage their risk, and serve as a buyer and seller of last resort,” he said in a statement. “These principles are especially important when the underlying demand and supply fundamentals change, as we are seeing in cocoa.”
With beans harder to come by, agricultural trading giant Cargill Inc recently turned to exchange supplies to source cocoa. The US merchant took delivery of 75,000 tons, the maximum allowed, when the March contract expired in London.
“We do intend to use a part of those beans to offset some of the shortages of fresh cocoa from our suppliers in West Africa,” said Job Leuning, Cargill’s head of cocoa trading. “We are keen to continue offering our customers the cocoa and chocolate products that they need in 2024.”
Cocoa continued to soar after Cargill took delivery and if the company does use the beans, it will further pressure already low exchange-certified stockpiles.
Replenishing inventories won’t be easy as new European Union (EU) rules due to kick in at year-end will require companies to show crops haven’t come from deforested land — something the industry is still struggling with how to prove.
The EU has faced calls to delay the deforestation regulation and cocoa futures could drop significantly if the deadline is pushed back. Some traders also say that the rally to more than US$10,000 (RM47,330) a ton — a higher price than copper — may be enough to curb demand.
Tough environment
For now, the high costs are hurting processors, with factories in West Africa slowing down or shutting. Blommer Chocolate Co is closing its 85-year-old Chicago chocolate plant as the facility is no longer efficient. Barry Callebaut, which began a reorganisation before the rally took off, has cut 18% of its workforce. It plans to close a German factory and a facility in Malaysia.
For everyone in the market, the spike higher has been accompanied by huge volatility, with a gauge of price swings near the highest in more than a decade.
“The cocoa market is currently not a confectioner’s comfort zone,” said Tristan Fletcher, chief executive officer at ChAI, a platform that uses AI to analyse commodity markets. “It’s a battleground for those with a taste for volatility.”
Focus is now turning to West Africa’s new harvest, though supplies will probably only start to ease next year after farmers have had time to react to higher prices and improve production. Another key question is how much supply is being held back in anticipation of the rally continuing.
Until more supplies arrive or demand craters, the industry should brace for a tough market and potentially higher prices — especially with liquidity in the futures market drying up.
“All the dealers I talk to, somewhere in the middle of the conversation, I hear that the market is broken,” Nightingale’s Thornton said. “I am talking about the overall market being broken, especially physical trading as counterparty risk and financing has become impossible to manage.”
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/706289
(March 29): The global cocoa market is buckling under the strain of unprecedented shortages.
A once-unimaginable rally that upended physical trading is now filtering rapidly through to the futures market. Prices that have more than doubled in just three months are forcing traders, processors and chocolate makers to stump up more cash to cover their trades or head for the exit.
That’s raising the spectre of company failures like the ones that plagued European utilities during the recent energy crisis, when gas prices spiralled out of control and governments were forced to bail them out. There are fears it could be worse — some traders are even alluding to a nickel-type meltdown that rattled the London Metal Exchange.
“It’s hard to understand the magnitude of the price rise with panic in the physical market and lack of performance by suppliers due to the crop failure being the driver,” said Pam Thornton, a veteran commodity trader at Nightingale Investment Management, who’s best known for her role at former cocoa hedge fund Armajaro Asset Management. “When you have moves of this magnitude, there are usually casualties and I’m amazed I haven’t heard of any yet.”
Cocoa futures have surged as poor harvests in West Africa, where most of the world’s beans are grown, sparked a third year of shortages. There’s a risk the crunch could be long-lasting, with climate change and crop disease ravaging trees and concerns mounting that production in Ivory Coast and Ghana has entered a period of structural decline.
Prices in New York are heading for their best month ever, and there are already signs of stress building across the industry.
Switzerland’s Barry Callebaut AG, the largest maker of bulk chocolate, in January said it expected “an industry wide impact on working capital requirements”, It said it addressed the concern by issuing 600 million Swiss francs (RM3.15 billion) in bonds to refinance securities due in May, as well as increasing a credit line and securing another loan.
While Barry Callebaut’s shares have dropped by about a third in the past year, investor Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc has just increased its stake, expressing longer-term confidence in the company.
Acomo NV, owner of Dutch trader Tradin Organic, said last year’s earnings were “materially impacted by the unprecedented increase in cocoa prices, resulting in lower demand and hedging losses”. Chocolate companies are also feeling the pinch, with BNP Paribas Exane downgrading Hershey Co due to surging costs.
Bean shortages
Scarce supplies first sparked a race to secure beans where they’re grown. In Ivory Coast, many traders and processors rushed to source supplies by paying farmers more than the prices set by the government. Others have turned to smaller producers like Ecuador and Indonesia, but it won’t be enough.
Barry Callebaut expects a deficit of about 500,000 tons this season, equal to about a 10th of the global market. The firm, a supplier to the likes of Mars Inc and Nestle SA, predicts another shortfall of 150,000 tons next season.
The shortages are roiling the futures market. As prices rise, traders with short positions — including those who’ve sold futures to hedge against physical holdings — have to come up with more money to pay margin calls, which work as an insurance policy to cover potential losses. Those who can’t are forced to buy back contracts, pushing up prices further and creating a vicious circle.
That’s exactly what happened in the gas market when Russia began restricting supplies to Europe. Prices spiralled out of control and companies started to fail one after another. German utilities including Uniper SE and the former European trading and supply unit of Gazprom PJSC had to be rescued.
In nickel, a runaway short squeeze centred on the world’s top producer in 2022 created so much market stress that it put others at risk of failing too. But unlike the LME, Intercontinental Exchange Inc is unlikely to intervene and halt cocoa trading to protect those vulnerable in the market.
ICE has however taken several steps to tame the rally and keep the London and New York markets orderly. The bourse increased margins several times this year and reduced the threshold for when market players need to disclose more information about their positions.
In London, where Ivory Coast and Ghana hedge their sales, the exchange is gradually cutting the amount traders can buy through its market. The so-called delivery limit is going from 75,000 tons in May to 50,000 tons in July, and down progressively until it reaches 25,000 tons for the December contract onward.
“It is a moment of great uncertainty, and the exchange measures are to avoid the market from being even more squeezed,” said Leonardo Rossetti, an analyst at brokerage StoneX.
Exchange role
ICE Futures Europe President Christopher Rhodes said the cocoa market is serving its function as a venue to manage price risk, and pointed to speculators curbing their positions.
“Derivatives markets facilitate price discovery, allow customers to manage their risk, and serve as a buyer and seller of last resort,” he said in a statement. “These principles are especially important when the underlying demand and supply fundamentals change, as we are seeing in cocoa.”
With beans harder to come by, agricultural trading giant Cargill Inc recently turned to exchange supplies to source cocoa. The US merchant took delivery of 75,000 tons, the maximum allowed, when the March contract expired in London.
“We do intend to use a part of those beans to offset some of the shortages of fresh cocoa from our suppliers in West Africa,” said Job Leuning, Cargill’s head of cocoa trading. “We are keen to continue offering our customers the cocoa and chocolate products that they need in 2024.”
Cocoa continued to soar after Cargill took delivery and if the company does use the beans, it will further pressure already low exchange-certified stockpiles.
Replenishing inventories won’t be easy as new European Union (EU) rules due to kick in at year-end will require companies to show crops haven’t come from deforested land — something the industry is still struggling with how to prove.
The EU has faced calls to delay the deforestation regulation and cocoa futures could drop significantly if the deadline is pushed back. Some traders also say that the rally to more than US$10,000 (RM47,330) a ton — a higher price than copper — may be enough to curb demand.
Tough environment
For now, the high costs are hurting processors, with factories in West Africa slowing down or shutting. Blommer Chocolate Co is closing its 85-year-old Chicago chocolate plant as the facility is no longer efficient. Barry Callebaut, which began a reorganisation before the rally took off, has cut 18% of its workforce. It plans to close a German factory and a facility in Malaysia.
For everyone in the market, the spike higher has been accompanied by huge volatility, with a gauge of price swings near the highest in more than a decade.
“The cocoa market is currently not a confectioner’s comfort zone,” said Tristan Fletcher, chief executive officer at ChAI, a platform that uses AI to analyse commodity markets. “It’s a battleground for those with a taste for volatility.”
Focus is now turning to West Africa’s new harvest, though supplies will probably only start to ease next year after farmers have had time to react to higher prices and improve production. Another key question is how much supply is being held back in anticipation of the rally continuing.
Until more supplies arrive or demand craters, the industry should brace for a tough market and potentially higher prices — especially with liquidity in the futures market drying up.
“All the dealers I talk to, somewhere in the middle of the conversation, I hear that the market is broken,” Nightingale’s Thornton said. “I am talking about the overall market being broken, especially physical trading as counterparty risk and financing has become impossible to manage.”
https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/706289
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